IRGC seizes two ships in Strait of Hormuz as US intercepts Iranian tankers

Analysis
The mutual-blockade frame fits the Wednesday exchange better than a ceasefire with incidents. Leavitt's ruling that non-US, non-Israeli seizures do not breach the agreement narrows it to a bilateral non-aggression pact, with third-flag commercial shipping as the contested medium, a framing, corroborated across outlets, that Washington is not challenging. Gulf shipping insurance markets are unlikely before April 26, 2026 to publicly reprice coverage as if ceasefire protection does not extend to third-flag traffic. Since the initial MSC Francesca seizure, Iran has publicly conditioned Hormuz reopening on US blockade termination, and Washington escalated with three Asian-waters tanker intercepts rather than contesting the ceasefire frame. That combination forecloses near-term commercial resumption and positions the UK-France demining conference as parallel-track preparation, not an imminent opening.