Economists Forecast Sharpest Monthly CPI Surge Since 2022 as Iran War Drives Inflation to 4%

Economists expect March CPI to show a 1% monthly increase, the sharpest since 2022, as the Iran war pushed gasoline up $1/gallon. The OECD revised US 2026 inflation from 2.6% to 4.2%. Goldman Sachs projected a worst-case peak of 4.9%. Diesel surged over 40% to $5/gallon with broad supply chain implications. The Federal Reserve faces a credibility dilemma as inflationary pressures from the conflict collide with the need for rate cuts, with markets now pricing the next cut no earlier than July. The energy shock is already propagating through food and transportation costs.