Americas — 2026-04-29
Cuba Faces Worst Energy Crisis in Decades as Venezuelan Oil Support Evaporates
Cuba faces its worst energy crisis in decades, producing only 40,000 barrels per day against a need of 90,000-110,000. Mexico suspended
Analysis
Cuba's power grid is operating at roughly half the fuel input required for basic service, with no credible resupply pathway after Venezuela cut subsidized deliveries following Maduro's capture and Mexico suspended Pemex shipments. The April 2 delivery, covering only nine days of demand after a three-month gap, marks a one-time relief event rather than a restored supply line. Nationwide blackouts affecting more than half the island for 24 or more consecutive hours arevery likely within the next 90 days. Cuba experienced multiple qualifying grid collapses in the prior 18 months even with Venezuelan support in place, a reference class that supports higher confidence given the supply trajectory has since worsened. The regime's capacity to maintain social order under extended darkness will be tested in ways not seen since the Special Period .
Cuba's power grid is operating at roughly half the fuel input required for basic service, with no credible resupply pathway after Venezuela cut subsidized deliveries following Maduro's capture and Mexico suspended Pemex shipments. The April 2 delivery, covering only nine days of demand after a three-month gap, marks a one-time relief event rather than a restored supply line. Nationwide blackouts affecting more than half the island for 24 or more consecutive hours are