Allied Intelligence — 2026-10-15

MI5 Director McCallum Says State Threats Quadrupled in a Decade as Russia Turns to Criminals for Hire After European Spy Expulsions

BLUFUK authorities are unlikely to charge anyone over the September 27 RAF Fairford incident by November 15, because political attribution to the IRGC does not substitute for admissible evidence against disposable proxies carrying only gasoline.

MI5 Director General Ken McCallum, giving the annual threat update at Thames House on October 13, called Russia "aggressor No. 1" and said MI5 now devotes more resources to state threats than during the Cold War 12. He said Russian services are "scrambling to pay criminals" to carry out operations, and United24 Media, citing the BBC, reported he linked this to the expulsion of Russian intelligence officers from European countries 12. NBC News reported McCallum said Iran has shifted toward military targets, with more than 50 Iran-linked arrests in Britain over the past year 1. On the September 27 incident near RAF Fairford, seven men were arrested and bailed, only gasoline was found in their vehicles, and Prime Minister Andy Burnham told Parliament on Monday it was "almost certainly directed" by the IRGC 1.

Analysis
UK authorities are unlikely to charge anyone over the September 27 RAF Fairford incident by November 15, 2026. Confidence is high, resting on consistent public accounts of the arrests and seized material, with no reporting of a charging decision. Only gasoline was found and the seven suspects are on bail, so prosecutors lack a visible offense tied to the base. The Prime Minister's IRGC attribution is a political and intelligence finding, not admissible evidence against these men, and Iran's use of unsophisticated criminals suggests disposable proxies who complicate any case tying them to Tehran. Sourcing converges on BBC reporting but includes no MI5 document. Police may instead be holding charges while national security investigators assemble the IRGC link, so a charge could come quickly. A charge would let the Home Office and Foreign Office pursue IRGC proscription and sanctions with a judicial record; without one, they act on intelligence attribution alone and base protection remains the main response.

3 sources

Britain has entered a 'new era of national security,' the head of MI5 says. - NBC News
Russia turns to criminals for hire after Europe expels its spies MI5 warns - United24 Media
MI5 chief warns of threats to UK from Russia, Iran and AI - BBC News