European Security — 2026-07-07

NATO Leaders Gather in Ankara for Summit Focused on Defense Spending Iran and Russia

BLUFAnkara's 70 billion euro Ukraine package will likely formalize Europe's assumption of the financing burden, giving Washington ammunition to accelerate broader burden-shifting demands across the alliance.

NATO leaders from all 32 member states convened in Ankara on Tuesday for a two-day summit centered on defense spending, Ukraine, and the aftermath of the Iran war 12. According to a draft summit declaration cited by Modern Diplomacy, European allies and Canada increased defense investment by more than 139 billion dollars in 2025 as members work toward the 5-percent-of-GDP-by-2035 pledge set at last year's Hague summit 2. NATO is expected to announce 70 billion euros in military equipment, training, and assistance for Ukraine in 2026 and pledge "at least equivalent levels" of support in 2027, funded mainly through bilateral and EU channels rather than new US contributions, with Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky attending summit events 23. A summit text obtained by Reuters says NATO leaders will affirm an "ironclad commitment" to collective defense and describe Russia as posing a "long-term threat" to Euro-Atlantic security, while the declaration is also expected to state that Iran must never obtain a nuclear weapon and call for freedom of navigation through the Strait of Hormuz 23. Foreign Policy reports that US ambassador to NATO Matt Whitaker said Washington intends to review allies' expanded capabilities amid burden-shifting pressure, days after President Trump publicly criticized NATO's collective defense spending 1.

Analysis
The 70 billion euro Ukraine pledge will likely be formalized by the close of the Ankara summit, with European governments and EU financing rather than new US money bearing the load. Trump's public criticism of alliance spending and Whitaker's review of allies' capabilities signal Washington will treat the package as evidence for burden-shifting rather than as a shared commitment. Erdogan's push for F-35 reinstatement and sanctions relief gives Ankara leverage to extract concessions as host, which could complicate declaration language on Iran and Hormuz. Moderate confidence reflects a single detailed draft-text account without independent corroboration of final summit output.

4 sources

What to Expect at the 2026 NATO Summit - Foreign Policy
NATO Ankara Summit 2026: Key Issues, Leaders and What to Expect - Modern Diplomacy
NATO Leaders Including Trump to Affirm 'Ironclad Commitment' to Collective Defence in Ankara, Summit Text Says - Reuters (via U.S. News & World Report)
Factbox-NATO Ankara Summit: Who's Going and What to Expect - U.S. News & World Report