Europe — 2026-05-08

Reform UK Surges to Second Place in National Polls Ahead of Local Elections

Polls opened on May 7 across the United Kingdom in contests covering over 4,800 English council seats, key mayoral posts, and the Welsh and Scottish parliaments. A YouGov poll for The Times and Sky News, cited by The British Tribune, placed Reform UK at 24 percent nationally, ahead of the Conservatives at 19 percent and Labour at 16 percent. The Irish Times reported Starmer making a late pitch to Reform and Green voters as polls opened; The British Tribune put his approval ratings at approximately -47 percent. In Scotland, YouGov modelling projected Reform winning 20 MSPs while the Conservatives were forecast to fall to seven Holyrood seats and Labour to 15.

Analysis
Reform UK's simultaneous lead over both Labour and the Conservatives marks the first sustained third-force triple-overtake in post-war British polling and is likely to establish whether protest support can harden into durable structural gains through the remainder of 2026. Starmer's net approval near -47 percent, broadly corroborated across outlets, forecloses the conventional incumbent-resilience argument. YouGov's Scottish projection, 20 Reform MSPs against seven Conservatives, signals a potential extinction-level event for Tory representation in Holyrood within this parliamentary cycle, a collapse analytically distinct from but reinforcing pressure on Conservative national leadership. The surge may instead reflect a protest ceiling tied to Starmer's unpopularity, leaving Reform vulnerable once he is no longer the principal electoral foil.

3 sources

Reform UK surges to second place in national polls - The Guardian
Hard-right Reform UK party eyes huge new gains in local elections on Thursday - Euronews
Polls open across the UK in major test for Keir Starmer and Labour - The Irish Times