Middle East — 2026-07-19
Strait of Hormuz Transits Plummet as Ships Reject US Military-Guided Transit Program After Iranian Attacks
BLUFIran very likely will strike again near Hormuz within the next week, accelerating a divergence between Washington's open-strait narrative and operators' revealed preference to bypass US-guided convoys entirely.
Seven maritime security and shipping sources told Reuters that shipping companies are avoiding the US military-guided Strait of Hormuz transit scheme after a wave of Iranian attacks on commercial vessels 1234. Since July 7, five vessels, three crude oil supertankers, one LNG tanker and one container ship, have been attacked in Omani waters, and Iran's Revolutionary Guards claimed responsibility Tuesday for strikes on two Emirati tankers 123. Iranian mining of the strait's traditional mid-channel shipping lanes since the war began February 28 has forced vessels onto two makeshift routes hugging the Iranian or Omani coast, and around nine Greek-operated LNG tankers that entered the Gulf via Hormuz in the past week were stuck inside the strait as Greek security firms Diaplous and MARISKS advised pausing voyages, citing no assurance of safe transit 12. A US defense official said more than 100 vessels coordinated directly with the US military to cross the strait over the past week, with roughly 300 more transiting the wider region 123. The White House and Trump maintain the strait is open to all traffic except Iran, while the Navy-led Joint Maritime Information Center raised its threat rating to "severe" last week 123.
AnalysisIran
very likely will strike at least one additional commercial vessel near the strait within the next week, sustaining the safety calculus that is pulling shipowners off the US-guided corridor and toward independent risk management. Moderate confidence rests on consistent multi-source attack reporting but limited visibility into which vessels remain inside the US scheme versus routing around it entirely. Continued strikes widen the gap between Washington's insistence the strait is open and operators' own risk assessments, pressuring the US military to backstop the corridor with harder guarantees or cede transit control to unilateral national deals. Tehran's parallel threat to extend Houthi reach into Bab el-Mandeb signals readiness to open a second chokepoint to the same pressure.
4 sources
- Ships Reject US Military-Guided Strait Of Hormuz Transits After Iranian Attacks Raise Security Concerns - Marine Insight
- Some Ships Refusing US-Military Guided Hormuz Transits After Attacks, Sources Say - U.S. News & World Report (Reuters)
- Some ships refusing US-military guided Hormuz transits after attacks, sources say - Business Recorder (Reuters)
- Some ships refusing U.S.-military guided Hormuz transits after attacks, sources say - The Japan Times (Reuters)
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