Middle East — 2026-09-11

Iran Resumes Ballistic Missile Production Using Prewar Components and Underground Facilities Despite US Claims Program Was Destroyed

BLUFDespite confirmed missile reassembly at Khojir, Washington's dismissive posture and Iran's degraded output make a US or Israeli strike on production sites unlikely within three months.

The Wall Street Journal reported on Thursday, citing US and Middle East officials, that Iran has resumed ballistic missile production, assembling both liquid-propellant and solid-propellant missiles from prewar stockpiled components at underground sites, including the Khojir missile plant in southeastern Iran 12. Officials told the Journal that Iran is also attempting to build new underground production facilities to avoid future strikes 3. One official said output has likely restarted at a slower pace since mid-June, after the ceasefire with the US, and in far smaller quantities than before the war 24. The White House did not directly address whether Tehran had resumed missile production, saying instead that Iran's nuclear sites were destroyed and its military badly weakened, while the Pentagon told The National it had destroyed up to 90 percent of Iran's drone, ballistic missile, and naval industrial base 3.

Analysis
A renewed US or Israeli strike on Khojir and other Iranian missile-production sites is unlikely within the next three months: Washington's response reaffirmed that Iran's nuclear sites were destroyed and its military "decimated" rather than acknowledging a live missile threat, and Iran's reliance on prewar stockpiled components at a reduced output pace lowers the urgency for preemptive action, even as new underground construction points to a longer-term reconstitution effort that resists interdiction. Confidence is moderate, resting on consistent but single-sourced officials' accounts of Khojir activity without independent technical corroboration, though this narrows a gap flagged in mid-August when no confirmation of underground reconstitution existed. Officials may be disclosing limited, stockpile-based assembly mainly to justify continued sanctions and interdiction pressure rather than because destroyed production infrastructure has been restored. Absent a strike, Washington will likely continue leaning on sanctions and component interdiction rather than military pressure to contain Iran's slower rebuild.

5 sources

Iran has resumed ballistic missile production in underground facilities - WSJ - Iran International
Iran resumes ballistic missile production underground, US newspaper reports - Arab News
Iran has resumed ballistic missile production, report says - The National
Iran resumes ballistic missile production despite US claims program was destroyed - Meduza
Iran Resumes Ballistic Missile Production, Rebuilding at Underground Sites - The Wall Street Journal