Global Economy — 2026-05-15

Reordering the Nuclear Regime in the Wake of the Iran War

BLUFIran's refusal of IAEA access has eliminated the verification baseline any enforceable deal requires, leaving Washington reliant on an open-ended strike posture that defers rather than resolves the proliferation threat.

Approximately 400 kilograms of weapon-grade uranium remain buried under rubble at the Isfahan complex following U.S. and Israeli strikes, according to the National Interest; Trump has stated publicly that the site is under active U.S. surveillance and that anyone approaching would be struck. Iran has since denied the IAEA access to all damaged nuclear facilities, and Carnegie Endowment fellows report that negotiations over enrichment timelines are at an impasse, with Washington demanding full program cessation and Tehran holding firm on its asserted enrichment right. CSIS additionally reports that Iran has threatened NPT withdrawal, while a pending U.S.-Saudi nuclear cooperation agreement that would preserve Riyadh's right to enrich is drawing congressional opposition on nonproliferation grounds.

Analysis
The Iran war has fractured IAEA verification authority, NPT security bargains, and U.S.-led civil nuclear cooperation, with no existing mechanism to address all three. Iran's IAEA access denial eliminates the verification baseline any deal requires, leaving the enrichment impasse, full cessation versus an asserted enrichment right, unresolvable. Washington's surveillance-and-strike posture substitutes deterrence for verification with no defined endpoint. The NPT withdrawal threat, if executed, would strip the legal scaffolding from future diplomacy; Tehran's near-term priorities center on conventional deterrence rather than formal exit, and the threat is primarily coercive. Preserving Riyadh's enrichment rights under the pending U.S.-Saudi framework would erode the Gold Standard regionally while congressional opposition risks ceding the Middle East to Russian and Chinese exporters.

2 sources

Reordering the Nuclear Regime in the Wake of the Iran War - National Interest
Iran and the Changing Character of the Nonproliferation Regime - Center for Strategic and International Studies