Adversary Intelligence — 2026-10-03

UK Charges Two Iranians Over Alleged State-Directed Terror Plot Against Manchester Jewish Community

BLUFLondon is unlikely to publicly attribute the Manchester chlorine-bomb plot to Iranian state direction by late November, keeping prosecution and political attribution on separate tracks.

Counter Terrorism Policing said on Friday that Rahman Salehi, 34, and Salam Ahmadyan, 36, were charged over an alleged plot against Manchester's Jewish community, after their September 20 arrests shortly before Yom Kippur 123. Police allege they received instructions to make a chlorine bomb, acquired components for an improvised explosive device, and conducted reconnaissance of potential targets 12. Police said the pair were in contact with an overseas third party who "may be in Iran" 12, though Iran International reported that authorities have not publicly established Iranian state direction 4. Home Office statements, as reported by Al Jazeera and RTÉ, said the men arrived by small boat; one now holds asylum and the other has a live claim 12. Police said the case is unconnected to the RAF Fairford incident 3.

Analysis
London is unlikely to name the Iranian state, the IRGC or MOIS as directing the Manchester plot by November 30. The charging statement stops at an overseas third party who "may be in Iran," and prosecutors will avoid prejudicing a pending terrorism trial. Officials have separated this case from RAF Fairford, where the Prime Minister has cited "strong indications" of Tehran's role, so attribution will likely run through that file. Confidence is high: the police statement, the Home Secretary's wording and wire coverage match, and none signals imminent attribution. Ministers could still attribute the plot politically rather than prosecutorially, as the Home Secretary's remarks on proxies and criminal networks imply, resolving the question without evidence. Attribution would push the Home Office and Foreign Office toward sanctions or expulsions. Without it, the response stays with protective security for Jewish institutions and the asylum-vetting debate.

5 sources

Two Iranians charged over alleged plot targeting Jewish community in UK - Al Jazeera
Two charged over Manchester Jewish community bomb plot - RTÉ News
Two Iranian nationals charged over alleged terrorism plot targeting Jewish community in England - NBC News
Two Iranians charged over foiled plot targeting Manchester Jews - Iran International
Two men charged with suspected terror plot targeting Jewish Community in Manchester - Metropolitan Police / Counter Terrorism Policing