European Security — 2026-06-30
Poland Signs $4.8 Billion Deal With Saab for Three A26 Submarines and Launches Baltic Sea Pact With Sweden
BLUFPoland likely acquires a credible Baltic subsurface capability through the A26 program, but Saab's zero-completion record on the design makes the 2031 timeline aspirational.
Poland's Ministry of National Defence signed a SEK 47 billion ($4.8 billion) contract with Saab in Gdynia on June 29 for three A26 submarines, first delivery in 2031 and all three completed by 2038
Analysis
The contract extends Poland's naval modernization into subsurface warfare, pairing a long-lead A26 program with the leased HMS Södermanland as bridge capability. The accompanying bilateral agreement binds Warsaw and Stockholm into a defense industrial partnership, with Saab committing €100 million in Polish industry investment and hundreds of Polish firms entering the supply chain. Schedule risk is the load-bearing uncertainty: Saab's two A26 hulls for Sweden have accumulated eleven years without launch. Swedish Defense Minister Jonson's acknowledgment that hull transfers from the Swedish order are under consideration signals the 2031 first-delivery target may already require drawing on Stockholm's contracted hulls. Persistent delays could instead convert the gap-filler lease into a long-term dependency, deferring Polish submarine capability to the 2040s.
The contract extends Poland's naval modernization into subsurface warfare, pairing a long-lead A26 program with the leased HMS Södermanland as bridge capability. The accompanying bilateral agreement binds Warsaw and Stockholm into a defense industrial partnership, with Saab committing €100 million in Polish industry investment and hundreds of Polish firms entering the supply chain. Schedule risk is the load-bearing uncertainty: Saab's two A26 hulls for Sweden have accumulated eleven years without launch. Swedish Defense Minister Jonson's acknowledgment that hull transfers from the Swedish order are under consideration signals the 2031 first-delivery target may already require drawing on Stockholm's contracted hulls. Persistent delays could instead convert the gap-filler lease into a long-term dependency, deferring Polish submarine capability to the 2040s.
4 sources
- Poland awards $4.8 billion A26 submarine deal to Saab -
Defense News - Poland signs $4.8 billion contract for Saab-made A26 submarines -
Breaking Defense - Saab receives order for three A26 submarines for Poland -
Naval News - Poland signs agreement to procure submarines from Saab and deepen strategic cooperation with Sweden -
Swedish Government