European Security — 2026-05-12

NPT Review Conference Enters Final Weeks Amid Nuclear Tensions

Amb. Do Hung Viet, president of the 11th NPT Review Conference, circulated a 13-page zero draft of the final outcome document on May 6, with states parties submitting feedback through May 13 before a revised draft is expected. A U.S. delegate told the conference on May 8 that 'several elements in paragraphs 52-55 are problematic,' referring to CTBT entry-into-force language, and proposed replacing those provisions with confidence-building measures and a P5 working group on testing moratoria. Iran objected to being named as a proliferation concern in the text, and the United States separately contested a paragraph noting 'grave concerns' about attacks on Iranian nuclear facilities. European states pressed for language attributing responsibility to Russia for threats to Ukrainian nuclear facility safety, which Moscow has resisted at previous review conferences. The conference is scheduled to conclude May 22.

Analysis
Three delegations with consensus veto power hold mutually incompatible positions: Washington demands replacement of CTBT entry-into-force language, Iran refuses to be named a proliferation concern, and European states press attribution language over Russian conduct at Ukrainian nuclear facilities. The conference is likely to fail to produce an agreed final document by May 22, per a single uncorroborated primary source inside the negotiations, extending the pattern from 2015 and 2022. The U.S. "good faith" framing contradicts decades of settled NPT consensus and reads as record-positioning. The reputational cost of a third consecutive failure could yet move one nuclear weapon state to accept minimalist language, but no blocking actor has shown flexibility on the record.

1 sources

Crosswinds Swirl Around 11th NPT RevCon in Week Two - Arms Control Association