Energy & Resources — 2026-07-21

Brent Crude Surges Past $90 as US-Iran War Disrupts Strait of Hormuz Shipping

BLUFBrent very likely breaches $100 before August 20 if Hormuz disruptions persist, compressing the timeline for inflation pass-through and allied economic strain.

Brent crude rose above $90 a barrel on Sunday and Monday, climbing more than 4% to $91.02 before easing to close at $89.22, as Iranian attacks reduced tanker traffic through the Strait of Hormuz, which normally carries about a fifth of global oil supply 123. US Central Command confirmed at least three American service members killed in fighting with Iran, and President Trump said on Truth Social that Iran "will pay" for the deaths, directing the Pentagon and Joint Chiefs accordingly 3. Iran's Houthi allies in Yemen declared a maritime embargo against Saudi Arabia, and Iran struck a power plant, desalination facility and oil installation in Kuwait over the weekend, while US forces carried out a ninth consecutive night of strikes on Iranian targets 34. Energy Aspects' Amrita Sen and RBC's Helima Croft told CNBC and The National respectively that a sustained Hormuz slowdown and depleted inventories could push Brent above $100, a threshold Goldman Sachs also flagged this month 34.

Analysis
A sustained Hormuz slowdown almost certainly keeps Brent pricing in supply-loss risk through this cycle, and the benchmark very likely closes above $100 at least once before August 20 if Iranian tanker strikes and the Houthi embargo on Saudi Arabia continue disrupting flows. This confidence is low, reflecting thin day-to-day price data against a fast-moving nine-day strike campaign whose trajectory remains unclear. Continued US strikes on Iranian targets and Tehran's attacks on Kuwaiti energy infrastructure sustain the risk premium independent of any single tanker incident. Diplomatic contacts through Qatari mediators offer the only near-term offramp, and their failure to gain traction would remove the main brake on further price acceleration.

4 sources