Energy & Maritime Security — 2026-08-01

Hormuz Strait Traffic Drops 52 Percent to Lowest Levels Since March as Shipping Crisis Deepens Across Multiple Chokepoints

BLUFTehran's rejection of shared governance in favor of dominance makes a formal Iran-Oman strait agreement very unlikely by September 30, sustaining leverage that will keep insurance premiums and rerouting costs elevated through autumn.

Strait of Hormuz transits fell 52.4 percent between July 20 and Sunday compared with the prior week, dropping to levels last seen in March, according to Lloyd's List Intelligence data cited by USNI News 1. Lloyd's List's own brief for the week of July 20-26 recorded 39 transits, down from 82, with non-Iranian-linked traffic falling 27 percent to 22 transits and inbound Gulf traffic down more than 90 percent from pre-strike levels 2. Seventy percent of last week's traffic operated without AIS, and US Central Command's blockade has redirected 18 merchant ships and disabled two others 2. Tehran this week rejected an Omani proposal for shared strait governance, seeking instead a dominant role in long-term management, while Houthi forces recorded 225 transits attacked or threatened between July 20 and Sunday, down from 311 the prior week 1.

Analysis
Tehran's rejection of Oman's shared-governance proposal, insisting on a dominant long-term role rather than joint management, makes a formal settlement very unlikely by September 30 since Iran has signaled negotiations follow, not precede, a war's end. Continued low transit volume preserves Tehran's leverage over routing and insurance markets while shadow-fleet tankers absorb cargo mainstream carriers now refuse, though the reported drop rests on a single detailed transit dataset, corroborated only by on-record quotation rather than independent confirmation, and could partly reflect undercounting given that 70 percent of transits ran without AIS. The reversal from mid-July's recovery toward pre-war volume shows how quickly gains can erode. Absent a governance deal, CENTCOM's interdiction posture and elevated war-risk premiums persist through the third quarter. Assessed with moderate confidence.

3 sources

Hormuz Traffic Levels Continue Decreasing, Houthis in Yemen Threaten Saudi Tankers - USNI News
Strait of Hormuz Brief: 29 July, 2026 - Lloyd's List Intelligence
How many ships are transiting through Hormuz and Bab Al Mandeb? - The National (UAE)