Military — 2026-09-15

Ukrainian Forces Regain 77 Square Miles North of Lyman Cutting Russian Salient in Major Frontline Breakthrough

BLUFUkraine's elimination of the Lyman salient breaks Russia's northern Fortress Belt pincer, making recapture of even half the lost ground very unlikely by mid-November.

Ukraine's 3rd Army Corps has cut off and largely eliminated a Russian salient north of Lyman in Donetsk Oblast, pushing Russian forces of the 20th Combined Arms Army back toward the Zherebets River, according to ISW's September 12 assessment, which cites acknowledgment from Russian milbloggers 1. OSINT analyst Clément Molin dated the operation's start to late May and estimated more than 200 square kilometers retaken, while Konrad Muzyka of Rochan Consulting put the figure near 240 square kilometers and the AKM Mapping account at 151; Newsweek separately cited Molin's estimate of 77 square miles (roughly 200 square kilometers) 234. Euromaidan Press reported the advance went largely unreported for three months, with Ukrainian officials and OSINT trackers staying silent and Russian sources including Rybar only recently acknowledging "problems near Lyman" 3. ISW assessed the gains have disrupted Russia's plans for a wider encirclement of the Donetsk Fortress Belt from the Lyman and Dobropillya axes 1.

Analysis
Elimination of the Lyman salient forces Russian commanders to redesign the Fortress Belt encirclement rather than merely delay it, since the northern pincer through Lyman and Dobropillya no longer exists as a viable axis. Russian forces are very unlikely to recapture at least half the lost territory by November 15, given the collapsed 20th Combined Arms Army positions and the canalizing Zherebets River line Ukraine is consolidating. Confidence is high, resting on converging milblogger admissions, independent OSINT ground-truthing across diverging estimates, and ISW's corroborating assessment. The wide spread in territorial figures and the three-month reporting silence suggest OSINT trackers may be overstating the operation's scale, with attrition and jamming likely driving Russian withdrawal as much as Ukrainian maneuver. Should the ground hold, Western planners can treat the Fortress Belt's northern flank as stabilized and shift intelligence and resupply priority toward Kostyantynivka and Dobropillya, where Russian infiltration pressure will likely concentrate next.

4 sources

ISW Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, September 12, 2026 - Kyiv Post (ISW Assessment)
Map shows major Ukrainian frontline breakthrough after months of clashes - Newsweek
Ukraine retook 240 square km north of Lyman and nobody reported it for three months - Euromaidan Press
Ukraine forces cut off Russian salient near Lyman, reclaim more than 200 sq. km, OSINT analyst says - Shelter