Iran War & Ceasefire — 2026-04-24

IEA Chief Warns of Biggest Energy Security Threat in History as 13 Million Barrels Per Day Lost

International Energy Agency executive director Fatih Birol told CNBC on April 23 at CNBC's CONVERGE LIVE in Singapore that the world is facing the biggest energy security threat in history, with 13 million barrels per day of oil lost due to the double-blockade of the Strait of Hormuz, down from roughly 20 million barrels per day transiting the strait before the conflict. Gulf countries have cut total oil production by at least 10 million barrels per day as storage fills up with no export route. The IEA warned of an imminent jet fuel crunch in Europe, with some countries facing shortages within weeks. The 32-member IEA released 400 million barrels from emergency stockpiles in March but Birol said a second tranche release would represent a reprieve rather than a resolution to the crisis.

Analysis
Birol's updated figures, 13 million barrels per day offline versus the 10.1 million reported 10 days earlier, confirm the supply loss is widening rather than stabilizing, invalidating the assumption that the crisis would plateau near the initial disruption level. Brent crude likely remains above 95 dollars per barrel within the next two weeks, a judgment the ensemble confirmed after weighing adversarial scenarios including coordinated SPR releases and demand destruction. The jet fuel crunch warning for Europe introduces a downstream refined-product sector risk that prior IEA messaging had not flagged.

2 sources