Middle East — 2026-06-14

US and Iran Expected to Sign Memorandum of Understanding Sunday Extending Ceasefire and Reopening Hormuz

BLUFA US-Iran ceasefire extension and Hormuz reopening is likely formalized by June 21, though Tehran's domestic opposition retains a narrow window to extract concessions or collapse the framework.

Pakistani Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif wrote Saturday on X that a US-Iran deal was "likely expected" to be finalized within 24 hours, with Pakistan preparing for an electronic signing ceremony 123. According to Axios, the memorandum of understanding would extend the ceasefire by 60 days, reopen the Strait of Hormuz, and launch negotiations on Iran's nuclear program, with Pakistan and Qatar serving as mediators 1. President Trump posted on Truth Social Saturday that the deal would be signed Sunday and the Strait would reopen immediately, threatening renewed military action if implementation falters 23. Iranian Foreign Ministry spokesman Esmaeil Baghaei told state media Saturday the signing would not occur Sunday, though he said signing in "the coming days cannot be ruled out" 23.

Analysis
Tehran's objection ran to timing, not substance; all four mediating parties corroborate the framework is agreed, grounding a high-confidence assessment. The MOU is likely signed by June 21. Reporting on this deal draws from a single basket of public statements, without independent delegation access. Iran's denial of a Sunday signing may instead reflect final-concession leverage on frozen assets or nuclear sequencing rather than substantive resistance. Hardline protests in Mashhad and a US drone intercept in the Strait warn that domestic opposition could exploit further delay to collapse the deal before the window closes. Allied mine-clearance planners, US naval commanders, and energy traders hold materially different postures depending on whether Strait reopening arrives before or after the G7 window.

3 sources

U.S., Iran expected to electronically sign agreement to end war Sunday - Axios
Live Updates: U.S.-Iran peace deal to be signed Sunday, Trump says - CBS News
Trump says Iran peace deal to be signed Sunday, but Iran disagrees - Washington Times