Iran Conflict — 2026-03-26
Barclays Warns 13-14 Million Bpd Supply Loss From Prolonged Hormuz Disruption
Barclays released analysis projecting a 13-14 million barrels per day oil supply loss if the Strait of Hormuz disruption continues through Q2. The bank assessment is the most severe from a major financial institution to date, exceeding IEA and Goldman Sachs scenarios. Separately, western gas companies posted gains as Middle East conflict drives European gas price increases, with LNG spot prices in Asia reaching $18/MMBtu.
Analysis
The Barclays 13-14M bpd figure is the most severe projection from a major financial institution, exceeding the IEA and Goldman Sachs scenarios cited in prior digests. If accurate, this would be the largest sustained supply disruption since the 1973 oil embargo and would overwhelm the 400M barrel IEA strategic reserve release authorized earlier this month.
The Barclays 13-14M bpd figure is the most severe projection from a major financial institution, exceeding the IEA and Goldman Sachs scenarios cited in prior digests. If accurate, this would be the largest sustained supply disruption since the 1973 oil embargo and would overwhelm the 400M barrel IEA strategic reserve release authorized earlier this month.