Energy — 2026-06-30

Ukrainian Refinery Strikes Slash Russian Gasoline Production 25 Percent as 26 Regions Impose Fuel Rationing

BLUFSustained Ukrainian deep strikes on refining capacity will likely force Moscow into a formal nationwide diesel export ban before July 31, compounding energy revenue losses at a pace outstripping available domestic mitigation options.

Reuters estimates cited by Ukrainska Pravda put Russian gasoline production down approximately 25 percent last week against year-ago daily output, with overall refining volumes at a 21-year low 12. Putin acknowledged the shortfall publicly on June 28-29, calling it a "temporary deficit" and announcing temporary export bans on petrol and aviation fuel while considering a full diesel ban 13. Meduza reported formal purchase restrictions in 26 regions; Zona Media's regional map logged binding or partial rationing across 56 regions, with Crimea under effective public fuel sales prohibition since June 21 45. Zelenskyy announced strikes on two additional refineries on June 29, targeting facilities in the Krasnodar and Yaroslavl regions 3.

Analysis
Russia will likely implement a formal nationwide diesel export ban before July 31, as the 25-percent production collapse and rationing across 56 regions have consumed Moscow's near-term domestic policy options. High confidence reflects the convergence of Putin's public acknowledgment of the shortfall, the petrol and aviation fuel export suspension already in force, and Putin's own stated intent to consider the diesel ban. Two additional refinery strikes on June 29 targeting Krasnodar and Yaroslavl eliminate the prospect of a production rebound that could defer that decision. Zelenskyy's 40-day deep-strike campaign signals sustained attrition, leaving emergency import subsidies and expanded rationing as Moscow's only remaining supply-side levers.

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