Energy & Commodities — 2026-07-28

Asia Faces Second Energy Crisis as Red Sea Houthi Blockade Closes Second Gulf Oil Chokepoint

BLUFSaudi Arabia is very unlikely to resume Bab Al Mandeb crude loading within 30 days, leaving Asian importers exposed to simultaneous disruption at both Gulf chokepoints with no short-term alternative to costlier Suez routing.

Saudi Arabia has loaded no crude for export via Bab Al Mandeb from its west coast since the Houthis declared a maritime embargo on Saudi shipping, with cargoes instead moving through the Suez Canal, where exports rose 106 percent the week the embargo was announced to 1.06 million barrels per day, according to Kpler data cited by The National 1. Bab Al Mandeb traffic fell 56 percent, from 34 vessel crossings on July 20 to 15 on Sunday, per Kpler figures reported by The National 2. About 6 million barrels per day of crude bound for Asia transit the strait, two-thirds of it Saudi, with India, Pakistan, the Philippines, South Korea, Japan, Taiwan and China all drawing significant shares of imports through the route, Al Jazeera reported, citing Kpler 3. The Houthis claimed missile and drone strikes on Aramco's facilities at Jizan and Yanbu on Saturday, an attack neither the Saudi government nor Aramco has confirmed; Yanbu handled 92 percent of Saudi seaborne crude exports in June 1. The Suez alternative adds roughly 30 days to transit and requires smaller Suezmax tankers or lightering since fully laden VLCCs cannot pass the canal, raising freight costs, according to Kpler analysts cited by the Al Jazeera and National reports 13.

Analysis
Saudi Arabia is very unlikely to resume crude loading via Bab Al Mandeb within 30 days, given the embargo has already forced a wholesale shift to Suezmax tankers and lightering that Riyadh cannot reverse without a verified de-escalation from the Houthis. This assessment carries high confidence, reflecting convergent traffic and export-volume indicators showing the diversion is systemic rather than incidental. The unconfirmed strikes on Yanbu, which handled 92 percent of June's seaborne exports, raise the cost of testing the strait before attacks demonstrably cease. Asian buyers now face compounded exposure, since the same chokepoint stress already degraded Strait of Hormuz flows.
4 sources
  1. Saudi Arabia shifts to Suez as Houthis drive Bab Al Mandeb oil exports to near zero - The National
  2. Bab Al Mandeb ship traffic slumps 56% since Houthis' Saudi embargo - The National
  3. Can the Suez save Asian oil consumers after Houthis shut Bab al-Mandeb? - Al Jazeera
  4. Asia scraping the bottom of the barrel as Red Sea oil blockade worsens energy crisis - The Guardian

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