Major Oil Traders Negotiate With US Treasury to Obtain Licenses for Approximately 50 Sanctioned Tankers

Analysis
Moderate confidence rests on a single Bloomberg report from anonymous sources, since gCaptain, OilPrice.com and ThisDay only amplify it, and Treasury has neither confirmed the talks nor set a timeline. It is unlikely that the US Treasury grants a license to Trafigura, Vitol, Mercuria or ADNOC to buy, lease or operate a sanctioned tanker between November 11 and December 10, 2026. Treasury is considering roughly 50 applications one by one, so the real question is which vessels qualify: reactivating idled hulls adds capacity, while legalizing ships already trading in the dark fleet adds little. Freight near historic highs and oil around $100 a barrel after the midterm losses give the administration reason to move, and Energy Secretary Wright has endorsed the concept. Still, the talks may be mainly a signal of price-relief effort, with applicants positioning early while Treasury declines on enforcement and shadow-fleet grounds. Any authorization would bind only US sanctions, leaving EU and UK limits in place. If licenses come, charterers and Asian refiners should plan around added vessel supply. If not, tanker scarcity and high freight stay in procurement budgets through year-end.