Lukashenko authorizes reserve conscription and artillery positions along Ukraine border; Zelensky flags Russian pull-in effort

Analysis
The reserve-officer conscription decree combined with documented road-and-artillery positioning, sourced through Ukrainian presidential-office and Center for Countering Disinformation channels without independent Belarusian or Western corroboration of the specific infrastructure, is very likely Russian spring-summer campaign preparation using Belarusian assets as a fix-force, not a precursor to direct Belarusian combat entry, which remains very unlikely before Q3. Kovalenko's claim is the operationally consequential one: Minsk has been tasked to tie down Ukrainian forces near the northern border, implying Russia expects to open second-axis maneuver from Belarusian territory and is pre-positioning now. The decree and disclosed positioning convert previously analytical concern into documented action, materially raising the floor for northern-axis risk modeling entering the spring-summer window. Lukashenko's 'all means' framing, carrying implicit nuclear dimension under the mutual-defense agreement, is standard deterrence theater, and the positioning may instead reflect an uncomfortable Minsk building leverage to extract concessions from Moscow rather than enabling offensive action, a pattern consistent with his posture since 2024; the fix-force operational signature, however, fits the former more than the latter. A Belarusian air-defense or drone incursion on the northern border is a roughly even chance within the coming month.