Allied Intelligence — 2026-07-21
Israeli Intelligence Assesses Iran Also Moved Enriched Uranium Into Pickaxe Mountain Tunnels
BLUFDespite Trump's explicit targeting rhetoric, a US or Israeli strike on Pickaxe Mountain within 90 days remains unlikely absent verified enrichment activity or observable military staging.
The Wall Street Journal reported Monday, citing Israeli and US officials, that Israeli intelligence assesses Iran moved thousands of uranium-enrichment centrifuges into tunnels at Pickaxe Mountain near Natanz last fall, following the June 2025 twelve-day war 123. The tunnels lie between 100 and 135 meters underground, making them almost completely resistant to conventional aerial bombardment 1. CNN separately reported, citing an Israeli official, that at least part of Iran's stockpile of uranium enriched to 60 percent was also transferred to the site 4. The Times of Israel reported it remains unclear where the centrifuges originated: they may have come from other Iranian nuclear sites, and satellite imagery has shown roughly fifteen months of truck movement and construction at the facility 2. Israel has shared the intelligence findings with the United States, according to the Journal report, and Iran has not permitted IAEA inspectors access to the site or disclosed its purpose 12. President Trump told radio host Hugh Hewitt on July 13 that Pickaxe Mountain is "a possible target for a nice big fat shot," the first time he named the site explicitly as a potential strike target 12.
AnalysisContinued IAEA non-access leaves Washington and Jerusalem targeting a hardened, unverified node rather than a disabled one, sustaining strike pressure absent confirmed enrichment activity. A US or Israeli strike on the facility within the next 90 days is
unlikely; Trump's public targeting rhetoric has not translated into authorized action, and no staging, munitions movement, or evacuation signals point to an imminent operation. Moderate confidence reflects a single primary sourcing chain corroborated by consistent satellite-observed construction activity but no independent confirmation of enrichment or centrifuge origin.
5 sources
- Israeli Intelligence: Iran Moved Thousands of Centrifuges Into Deep Mountain Tunnels - Worthy News
- Israeli intel said to show Iran has moved thousands of centrifuges to Natanz's Pickaxe Mountain - Times of Israel
- Report: Israel Believes Iran Moved Thousands of Centrifuges to Underground Facility Near Natanz - Haaretz
- Israeli intelligence assesses Iran moved enriched uranium to Pickaxe Mountain - Israel Hayom
- Iran Moved Thousands of Centrifuges Into Fortified Mountain Site Near Natanz - Wall Street Journal
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