Iran-US Crisis — 2026-04-18

Iranian Parliament Speaker Qalibaf threatens Strait will not remain open as Trumps 20-year enrichment demand stalls talks

Iranian Parliament Speaker Mohammed Bagher Qalibaf posted on X early Saturday that the Strait will not remain open if the blockade continues, aligning parliament with the IRGC closure declaration. US negotiators last weekend demanded a 20-year Iranian enrichment suspension; Iran countered five years, which Washington rejected. The two-week ceasefire expires April 21. Administration non-negotiables include full enrichment halt, dismantlement of damaged facilities, and surrender of 400-plus kilograms of highly enriched uranium presumed buried underground. A second round of in-person talks is under consideration before the deadline.

Analysis
The 20-year versus 5-year enrichment suspension gap reflects incompatible frameworks, not a closing distance; sources converge on this read. Washington's insistence on dismantlement and surrender of 400-plus kilograms of buried HEU treats the damaged-facility assessment as leverage; Qalibaf's parliamentary alignment with IRGC hardliners forecloses Pezeshkian's room to maneuver. Very likely within 72 hours, any second round before the April 21 deadline yields either a ceasefire extension absent a substantive enrichment compromise, or breakdown; almost no chance a definitive agreement is signed at current terms. The maximalist public postures may instead mask a private convergence toward a 10-year framework; if so, leaks naming a duration floor or ceiling should surface within the next negotiating cycle, and none have.

1 sources

Trump says Iran talks may resume this week, but opposes enrichment compromise - Washington Post