Military — 2026-05-21

Budanov Says Kremlin Still Trying to Kill Him After 10 Attempts as He Leads Secret Peace Talks

BLUFConcentrating Ukraine's back-channel architecture in one targeted official leaves a formal Russia-Ukraine negotiating session by December 31, 2026 genuinely uncertain, with Moscow's shrinking of the prisoner swap suggesting exploitation over progress.

In an interview with The Times published May 15, Kyrylo Budanov, Ukraine's presidential chief of staff since January, said the Kremlin continues to target him despite his role in peace negotiations 12. The Times reported that Budanov has survived at least 10 assassination attempts since August 2020 and considers such attempts "absolutely normal" given his intelligence background 23. He said back-channel contacts built during his years running HUR are now serving in peace talks as they did for prisoner exchanges, though no date for new talks has been set and a planned "1,000-for-1,000" prisoner swap was reduced to 205 134. Budanov also told The Times that Russia retains nuclear strike capability but that he has seen no indicators of preparation 13.

Analysis
Ukraine's peace negotiating architecture rests on a single figure under active lethal threat, per an uncorroborated first-person interview with The Times, with no identified institutional fallback. The 1,000-for-1,000 prisoner swap collapsing to 205 signals Moscow is constraining confidence-building while informal channels remain open, consistent with the Kremlin treating those channels as intelligence assets rather than diplomatic progress. A formal session by December 31, 2026, is genuinely uncertain: no date is set, and Russia's Donbas withdrawal demand has no Ukrainian political path to acceptance. Budanov may be projecting back-channel activity primarily to sustain Western support, leaving EU and NATO governments without a reliable signal on which to condition weapons deliveries.
5 sources
  1. Budanov Says Kremlin Still Trying to Kill Him as He Leads Ukraine Secret Peace Talks - Kyiv Post
  2. Budanov has survived at least 10 assassination attempts by the Kremlin - The Times - Ukrainian News Network (UNN)
  3. Budanov has survived at least 10 attempts on his life since August 2020. What else did the head of OP say in an interview with the Times - Babel
  4. Budanov says Russian contacts help him navigate peace talks - New Voice of Ukraine
  5. Can This Man End the War in Ukraine? | Kyrylo Budanov Interview - The Times (UK)

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