Middle East — 2026-07-08

US Revokes Iran Oil Waivers After Hormuz Attacks, Ending MOU Concessions

BLUFWaiver revocation eliminates Tehran's primary incentive to restrain Hormuz operations, making further attacks on commercial shipping likely within the next two weeks.

The U.S. Treasury Department's Office of Foreign Assets Control on Tuesday revoked the general license that had authorized Iranian oil sales under the memorandum of understanding reached with Tehran last month, according to a U.S. official Strait of Hormuz" data-source="Axios" data-url="https://www.axios.com/2026/07/07/us-revokes-iran-oil-waivers-hormuz-strait-attacks" data-rt="primary" data-mbfc="high" data-otype="digital_news">12. The official said the move responds to renewed Iranian attacks on shipping in the Strait of Hormuz over the prior 24 hours, adding that "Iran's actions in the Strait were wholly unacceptable to the United States and will be met with consequences" 13. The Joint Maritime Information Center reported that a liquefied natural gas tanker, an oil supertanker and a third vessel came under attack in or near Hormuz on Tuesday and raised the threat level to ships transiting the strait to "severe" 3. Iran's Foreign Ministry said Tehran was "diligently fulfilling its commitments" under the MOU and called on regional states and shipping firms to avoid actions that contradict its provisions, while also warning that vessels using routes uncoordinated with Iran or tampering with tracking systems faced risk 1. The revoked waiver, in place through August 21, had permitted U.S. import of Iranian crude and dollar-denominated payment to Tehran 3.

Analysis
Further attacks on tankers transiting the Strait are likely within the next two weeks, sustaining the "severe" threat designation the Joint Maritime Information Center imposed on Hormuz shipping. High confidence in this assessment rests on the demonstrated pattern of repeated, deliberate strikes against vessels using the U.S.-protected southern corridor rather than isolated incidents. Waiver revocation strips Tehran of the sanctions relief it cited as evidence of MOU compliance, narrowing Iran's incentive to restrain attacks meant to force traffic onto its preferred northern route. Washington's return to enforcement signals it will accept near-term market disruption to regain negotiating leverage over Tehran.

4 sources