Israeli Intelligence Officials Shocked by Speed of Iran Military Recovery as Missile Production Approaches Pre-War Levels

The Jerusalem Post reported that Israeli defense and intelligence officials, including from the IDF and Mossad, have been surprised by the pace of Iran's military recovery four months after the war's main phase ended in April, with the turnaround extending across multiple areas including the ballistic missile threat 1. Israeli officials assess Iran has adopted a targeted reconstruction approach prioritizing missile production over broader industrial rebuilding, and Iran has used bulldozers to reopen roughly 50 of 69 tunnel entrances at 18 underground missile facilities, potentially restoring access to an estimated 1,000 ballistic missiles 2. The Post reported it independently confirmed Iranian officials' claims of accelerated weapons production, and estimated that manufacturing 100 to 300 missiles per month would restore Iran's arsenal to roughly June 2025 levels by early-to-mid 2027 12. Iran's estimated missile stockpile grew from roughly 1,300 in June 2025 to about 2,500 by February 2026, and the Post assessed Iran could become a prohibitive threat by 2028 if that production pace holds 1. The IDF, responding to the Post, said it has "substantially harmed" Iran's military capabilities and continues tracking rehabilitation efforts but declined to specify production estimates, citing intelligence sources and methods 1.