Information Warfare — 2026-06-17

Russia Publishes AI-Generated Flag-Raising Videos to Fabricate Kostyantynivka Capture Claims as ISW Reports Only 93-153 Troops Infiltrated

BLUFRussia's pre-reporting of Kostiantynivka's capture has trapped field commanders in an evidence-fabrication cycle, making documented seizure and control of the city unlikely by mid-September 2026.

On June 15, Russian sources published videos purportedly showing troops raising flags near Kostiantynivka and in Dovha Balka, paired with a Russian Defense Ministry claim to have captured Dovha Balka 123. ISW assessed the footage may have been AI-generated, consistent with previous Russian information operations using artificial intelligence to support territorial advance claims 123. Brigadier General Oleksandr Bakulin, commanding Ukraine's 19th Army Corps, said Russian commanders had already reported Kostiantynivka captured to higher leadership and were seeking ground evidence to validate those claims 12. Bakulin put the infiltrator count at 93 to 153, dismissing Russian figures of 250 to 300 as exaggerated, and reported that Ukrainian forces attacked the positions shown in the flag videos after filming 23.

Analysis
Pre-reporting Kostiantynivka's capture before holding it locks Russian field commanders into an evidence-gathering mission that generates tactical risk-taking decoupled from operational value. An infiltrator count of 93-153 reflects a raiding posture, not a control footprint, and Ukrainian counterattacks on the filmed positions immediately after filming confirm active defensive pressure. The pattern mirrors prior IO cycles around Pokrovsk and Chasiv Yar. Russian forces are unlikely to seize and maintain documented control by September 17, 2026, though the footage may instead document genuine penetrations briefly held and then dislodged. Analytic confidence is moderate, resting on convergent Ukrainian command and ISW reporting but constrained by the absence of independent access to force dispositions inside the city. Documented Russian control would compel Ukrainian reserve reallocation and accelerate Western delivery timelines under a Donetsk collapse narrative.

5 sources

Russia Turns to AI Videos to Fake Battlefield Success Near Kostiantynivka, ISW Says - United24 Media
Russia fakes Kostiantynivka capture as reality tells a different story, ISW says - RBC-Ukraine
ISW: Russia could have created an AI video about Konstantinovka - PRM
Russia uses AI to fake flag-raising videos in Kostyantynivka — ISW - NV Ukraine
Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, June 15, 2026 - Institute for the Study of War (ISW)