Iran Conflict — 2026-03-23

Brent Crude Holds Above $112 as Hormuz Disruption Creates Largest Oil Supply Shock in History

Brent crude futures settled at $112.18/bbl, their highest since July 2022, as the Strait of Hormuz disruption cut Gulf oil production by at least 10 mb/d — the largest supply disruption in oil market history according to the IEA. Goldman Sachs raised its 2026 Brent forecast to $85 from $77, citing prolonged disruption. CNBC reported the US economy faces a two-week deadline before sustained Hormuz closure triggers economy-wide damage. QatarEnergy declared force majeure at its Ras Laffan LNG facility, responsible for 20% of global LNG production, sending Asian LNG spot prices above $25/MMBtu. California gasoline prices have surged past $5/gallon.

2 sources
  1. The economy has a Strait of Hormuz deadline for Trump: Two weeks - CNBC
  2. Brent oil prices could surge past record high if Iran war disruption persists - CNBC / Goldman Sachs

View in full brief →

UNCLASSIFIED // OPEN SOURCE