Global Economy — 2026-07-12

UAE Crude Output Surges to Record 3.8 Million BPD After OPEC Exit as Gulf Production Recovers

BLUFAbu Dhabi's post-OPEC volume play forces remaining members into a lose-lose choice between matching discounts or ceding market share, accelerating the cartel's structural erosion.

The UAE raised crude output to more than 3.8 million barrels per day in June, the highest level since April 2020, according to two sources familiar with production data cited by Reuters 12. The International Energy Agency put output even higher, at 4.1 million bpd, calling it the country's highest monthly average on record and surpassing the 4 million bpd peak reached during the 2020 price war 3. The UAE's own OPEC submissions showed May output at 2.11 million bpd during peak Iran-conflict shut-ins, down from 3.40 million bpd in February, while the IEA assessed higher figures for both months at 2.8 million and 3.64 million bpd respectively 3. The increase followed the UAE's May 1 exit from OPEC and OPEC+, and ADNOC has been selling crude through tenders at discounted prices as supply has grown, traders told Reuters 14. Bloomberg data cited separately showed UAE exports reaching 3.94 million bpd, just below the record set in late 2025 4.

Analysis
Abu Dhabi's OPEC exit lets it compete on volume rather than quota discipline, undercutting supply management logic for Gulf producers still inside OPEC+, while the widening gap between UAE's OPEC-reported figures and IEA assessments shows Gulf producers can understate output to OPEC while selling the surplus openly, weakening compliance verification, though the discrepancy could also reflect differing measurement methodologies rather than deliberate underreporting. ADNOC's discounted tenders are landing with price-sensitive buyers like Chinese teapot refiners rather than premium term customers, pressuring remaining OPEC+ members to match discounts or cede share as group cohesion erodes. Reuters supplies the sole original reporting; other outlets amplify that single account rather than corroborate independently.

4 sources

UAE crude output nears record following OPEC exit, sources says - Reuters (via Zawya)
UAE crude output nears record following Opec exit: Sources to Reuters - Khaleej Times
UAE Raises Crude Output To Over 3.8 Million BPD After OPEC Exit, Highest Since 2020 - Marine Insight
UAE Oil Output Climbs After Leaving OPEC - OilPrice.com