Armed Conflict — 2026-05-11

ISW: Russia's Year-Long Offensive Stalls as Ukraine Retakes Over 400 Square Kilometers

ISW's May 10 assessment found that Russian forces made no significant operational breakthrough over the past year and recorded a net territorial loss of 116 square kilometers in April. Ukrainian forces, per ISW, recaptured more than 400 square kilometers in southern Ukraine through winter and spring 2026 counteroffensives, retook a significant part of Kupiansk in late 2025, and liberated several settlements in western Zaporizhzhia in late April. ISW separately highlighted Ukraine's long-range strike campaign against Russian logistics, military equipment, and oil infrastructure as directly reducing Moscow's ability to conduct large-scale offensive operations and disrupting frontline communications. Russian troops have failed to make significant advances near Kostiantynivka since October 2025, per ISW, despite the sector being a key segment of Ukraine's fortified defense line.

Analysis
Russia's advance rate has fallen roughly two-thirds over 18 months. April marked Moscow's first net territorial reversal since the Kherson withdrawal, a structural inflection ISW's geolocated metrics corroborate across five consecutive months of attrition outpacing recruitment. Ukraine will likely sustain net gains exceeding 200 square kilometers through end of June 2026, as rear-area strike disruption degrades Moscow's capacity to mass for a counter-thrust. Russia's acceptance of local losses may instead reflect deliberate reallocation toward the Kostiantynivka fortress belt for a summer Donetsk offensive, rather than a durable collapse of offensive capacity.

3 sources

Russia's Year-Long Offensive Stalls as Ukraine Retakes Ground Across Front, ISW Says - United24 Media
Russia made no major battlefield gains over year, Ukraine pushed forward — ISW - RBC-Ukraine
Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, May 10, 2026 - ISW / Critical Threats