European Security — 2026-04-19
Lithuania and Latvia again block Fico overflight for Moscow Victory Day, forcing Slovak PM reroute
Slovak Prime Minister Robert Fico confirmed Friday that Lithuania and Latvia will again refuse overflight permission for his 9 May Victory Day trip to Moscow, as they did in 2025, forcing a southern detour through Turkey or the Balkans. Fico responded: I will find another route. The move isolates Fico further within the
Analysis
Fico's attendance would be the first EU/NATO head-of-government appearance at a Kremlin Victory Day since 2022, per Novinky with Ukrainian press corroboration, and Magyar's vow to lift Budapest's Ukraine-loan veto, confirmed per Bloomberg and Euronews, strips Fico of his last co-signatory cover, leaving him the lone EU leader in Moscow precisely as his V4 isolation peaks. The forced reroute through Turkey or the Balkans ties 9 May logistics to Ankara's acquiescence. Slovak coalition stability is likely through the parade date but not secure; pressure is elevated and could peak in June. The trip may be primarily choreography for a domestic post-EU-presidency narrative rather than a substantive Kremlin alignment signal, in which case absorbing the overflight denial and the loss of Hungarian cover is the calculated price of a legible message to Fico's home base.
Fico's attendance would be the first EU/NATO head-of-government appearance at a Kremlin Victory Day since 2022, per Novinky with Ukrainian press corroboration, and Magyar's vow to lift Budapest's Ukraine-loan veto, confirmed per Bloomberg and Euronews, strips Fico of his last co-signatory cover, leaving him the lone EU leader in Moscow precisely as his V4 isolation peaks. The forced reroute through Turkey or the Balkans ties 9 May logistics to Ankara's acquiescence. Slovak coalition stability is likely through the parade date but not secure; pressure is elevated and could peak in June. The trip may be primarily choreography for a domestic post-EU-presidency narrative rather than a substantive Kremlin alignment signal, in which case absorbing the overflight denial and the loss of Hungarian cover is the calculated price of a legible message to Fico's home base.