U.S. Intelligence Assesses Iran Will Maintain Hormuz Blockade as Its Only Strategic Leverage

U.S. intelligence agencies assess Iran is unlikely to lift its Strait of Hormuz blockade soon, viewing control of the waterway as virtually its only remaining leverage against the United States. Iran is reportedly developing a three-tier classification system for transiting vessels, hostile, neutral, and friendly, with differentiated passage rules indicating intent to institutionalize selective blockade rather than reopen the strait. Some vessels from France, Japan, China, and Oman have transited under opaque clearance arrangements reportedly involving security checks and substantial payments. Ali Vaez of the International Crisis Group noted the U.S. sought to prevent Iran from developing weapons of mass destruction but ended up handing it a weapon of mass disruption.