Iran War & Ceasefire — 2026-04-20

Kuwait declares force majeure on crude as Hormuz blockade drags into sixth day; Trump rules out ceasefire extension

Kuwait Petroleum Corp. notified customers on 17 April that it was invoking force majeure on crude and refined product deliveries as the Strait of Hormuz blockade prevents customer vessels from entering the Persian Gulf, according to a document obtained by Bloomberg. President Trump said Sunday the two-week ceasefire with Iran expiring Wednesday evening Washington time is highly unlikely to be extended absent a deal, and that the Hormuz blockade will remain until an agreement is finalized. Brent rose 4.8% to $94.75 as fears mounted that the US-Iran ceasefire would unravel; US officials estimated earlier in April that more than 9 million barrels per day of regional production would be shut during the month. Kuwaiti output is now at levels last seen after the 1990 Iraqi invasion after multiple strikes on oil infrastructure.

Analysis
Kuwait's force majeure declaration, corroborated across Bloomberg's direct contractual document, CNN, CNBC, and trade press, converts the blockade from a diplomatic lever into contractually-booked commercial loss that producers and customers will very likely litigate to recover, and signals KPC no longer expects Wednesday's deadline to hold. Trump's public ruling-out of an extension within 48 hours almost certainly forecloses that session as a decision point, moving the probability of renewed kinetic action across 22–24 April into the roughly even chance range absent a surprise Iranian concession on enrichment. The $94 Brent tape is pricing a coin-flip on the strike window, not a completed break.

5 sources