Africa — 2026-09-03

Ethiopia National Dialogue Endorses Executive Presidency Merging PM and President Roles Raising Power Concentration Fears

BLUFAbiy's dialogue endorsement creates a formal path to consolidate executive power, but a parliamentary vote to amend the constitution before end of October 2026 remains unlikely given the scale of revision required.

Ethiopia's national dialogue, involving more than 4,000 delegates over several weeks, concluded on August 22 and overwhelmingly endorsed constitutional changes merging the prime minister and largely ceremonial presidency into a new "executive presidency" to be selected by parliament, while also recommending cutting funding for ethnic-based political parties in favor of "national" ones 12. The recommendation could go before parliament when it reconvenes in October, and Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed, who did not attend the dialogue, is widely expected to be the leading candidate should it advance 12. Political analyst Befekadu Hailu said the change would let Abiy assume the executive presidency while concentrating power in a single office, a proposal AFP reported has drawn comparisons to Turkey's 2014 shift under Recep Tayyip Erdogan 23. Key opposition parties boycotted the process and armed groups were excluded; opposition leader Merera Gudina said the dialogue could not guarantee durable peace or democratic governance, while parliament's upper house secretary-general Tiglu Melese said the new office would unify the country's ethnic groups 12.

Analysis
The dialogue's conclusion gives Abiy a parliamentary path to formalize power he already holds, though passage before October is unlikely given the scale of constitutional revision required and the absence of a confirmed floor timetable. Passage would strip away the institutional check a separately elected presidency could someday provide; delay or failure would leave the ceremonial split intact and signal internal hesitation despite ruling-party dominance. Boycotting opposition parties and excluded armed groups hold no formal lever to block the amendment, leaving parliamentary math as the only near-term check. The reform could also reflect a genuine institutional response to Ethiopia's ethnic-federal strains rather than a vehicle for Abiy's personal ascension. Confidence is moderate, resting on a single wire account with no parliamentary drafting or scheduling detail yet visible, and the outcome determines whether foreign governments and investors hedge against succession risk or lock in longer-term bilateral commitments with Addis Ababa now.

4 sources

Ethiopia backs executive presidency plan, raising fears of power grab - Africanews
Ethiopia's Abiy could consolidate power as 'executive president' - France 24 (AFP)
Ethiopia's Abiy could consolidate power as 'executive president' - Yahoo News (AFP)
Ethiopian National Dialogue Backs New 'Executive Presidency,' Raising Power-Grab Fears - GlobalPost