Over 46 Million Early Ballots Cast Setting Midterm Record as Democrats Lead in Early Vote Share

Analysis
Early voting has already surpassed the 2022 total with days remaining, and the record reflects a lasting shift away from Election Day voting more than a surge in enthusiasm. Democrats hold a registration edge among early voters, but registration shows who returned a ballot, not how it was marked, and Republicans appear to be shifting toward in-person voting nearer Election Day, so the early gap may narrow. The University of Florida Election Lab is very unlikely to report more than 60 million total early ballots by Election Day, November 3. I have moderate confidence in this assessment, because the lab's primary tracker and counts across three outlets are consistent, though those outlets draw on it or a parallel tracker and are not fully independent, and the final-days pace depends on state reporting lags. The record may mostly reflect expanded access in Michigan, Connecticut and New York, so it need not signal higher overall turnout or a Democratic advantage. If the tally clears 60 million, officials should plan for 2018-level turnout and staff Election Day less heavily than expected. If it stays below, parties should keep Election Day mobilization and poll-site capacity in place.