Armed Conflict — 2026-09-18

Turkey Sends Draft Memorandum to Russia and Ukraine Proposing Black Sea Civilian Shipping Pact Modeled on Grain Initiative

BLUFTurkey's draft Black Sea shipping pact faces long odds; agreement between Russia and Ukraine by mid-December is very unlikely given Moscow retains tactical incentive to keep the corridor contested.

A Turkish diplomat told AFP on Thursday that Ankara has sent Russia and Ukraine a draft memorandum proposing a mechanism to end attacks on civilian ships in the Black Sea 1234. The diplomat said the proposal is "inspired by" the 2022 Black Sea Grain Initiative and would route shipping through the territorial waters of Turkey and, if willing, Georgia, avoiding the international-waters gap Ukrainian vessels currently transit near Romania and Bulgaria 234. Industry figures cited by the diplomat show at least 25 Turkish-owned vessels, four flying the Turkish flag, have been hit since late June 34. Foreign Minister Hakan Fidan had called for a moratorium on such strikes on August 8, and President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan has said he intends to raise the issue with President Vladimir Putin in November 34.

Analysis
Turkey's shift from Fidan's August moratorium appeal to a formally transmitted draft memorandum reopens a track Russia has resisted since abandoning the grain deal in 2023, but Moscow retains little incentive to negotiate away a shipping gap it currently exploits to strike Ukrainian-linked vessels. Agreement between Russia and Ukraine on the pact by December 18 is very unlikely, since neither the moratorium call nor mounting Turkish vessel losses has yet moved either side's calculus; Erdoğan's planned November approach to Putin will be the next real test of Moscow's posture. The diplomat's disclosure to AFP may function primarily as public pressure ahead of that meeting rather than as a sign Moscow has shown genuine interest. Confidence is low, resting on one diplomatic source's account of an early-stage draft with no formal response yet from either government. Success would let Western and Turkish shippers shift back to territorial-water routes with reduced insurance and drone-strike exposure; failure leaves insurers pricing in continued risk and Kyiv dependent on the exposed Romania-Bulgaria corridor.
4 sources
  1. Turkey Proposes Russia-Ukraine Black Sea Pact Similar to Grain Deal - Kyiv Post
  2. Turkey Proposes Russia-Ukraine Deal to End Black Sea Shipping Attacks - Naharnet (AFP)
  3. Turkey Proposes Black Sea Deal to Protect Civilian Shipping - Turkish Minute
  4. Turkey Proposes Russia-Ukraine Deal to End Black Sea Shipping Attacks - Naharnet (AFP wire)

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