Energy & Markets — 2026-06-10

Ghost Tankers and Clandestine Flows Through Hormuz Reach 2.1 Million Barrels Per Day Easing Supply Shock

BLUFStructurally entrenched dark transit through Hormuz likely sustains near 3 million bpd into July, masking inventory depletion that exposes markets to a sharp price correction if enforcement tightens.

JPMorgan estimated clandestine flows through the Strait of Hormuz at 2.1 million barrels per day during the final two weeks of May, with visible commercial traffic remaining at roughly 15% of pre-war levels 123. Piper Sandler's Jan Stuart put total May outflows higher at 2.9 million bpd, including approximately 900,000 bpd on vessels transiting dark with transponders disabled and the remainder on ships that paid tolls to Iranian entities 2. Maritime intelligence firm Vortexa tracked hundreds of dark transits since early March and reported that 65.2% of outbound laden vessels moved dark in May, with non-Iranian operators now accounting for the majority of those movements 3. Brent futures traded around $93 per barrel as of Friday, below the recent war-period peak of $114 23.

Analysis
The clandestine channel has become structurally entrenched: non-Iranian commercial operators now account for the majority of dark transits, foreclosing clean interdiction by any single party. Flows likely reach 3.0 million barrels per day by end of June 2026. Analytic confidence is moderate, resting on AIS-gap analysis that quantifies transit frequency but cannot directly verify cargo volumes. Visible market calm at $93 Brent obscures accelerating inventory depletion, with commercial stockpiles down sharply since the war began and the Strategic Petroleum Reserve tracking toward its lowest level since the early 1980s. Reduced Chinese demand and sustained reserve releases may be carrying more of the supply absorption load than dark-transit figures suggest, a competing explanation reserve managers should weigh before deferring the next drawdown tranche.

4 sources

Oil Tankers Go Dark to Sneak More Gulf Barrels Through Hormuz - Bloomberg
The Strait of Hormuz is 'leaking' oil - CNN
Ghost tankers ease Hormuz supply shock as oil price risks build - Invezz
Oil Tankers Go Dark to Sneak More Barrels of Oil Through Hormuz - Insurance Journal