Polish Army Set to Become Largest Conventional Force in Europe

Analysis
Warsaw will likely formalize a defense budget floor of at least 5 percent of GDP for fiscal year 2027 by the close of 2026 budget deliberations, heightening pressure on NATO partners to match it or publicly account for the gap. High confidence reflects converging signals: spending already at 4.5 percent of GDP in 2025, binding SAFE loan obligations signed, and a coalition that overrode a presidential veto, though all sourcing converges on public declarations rather than internal deliberations. Nawrocki-Tusk friction over EU conditionality in the SAFE instrument could produce a formal announcement below 5 percent even if total outlays through the loan exceed that threshold. U.S. force posture officials who treat Poland as the primary burden-sharing model will need to accelerate eastern-flank integration if Warsaw delivers, or confront the argument's collapse if domestic fragility intervenes.