UK-France Hormuz conference of 40+ countries Friday; Macron briefs Modi, Paris convenes defensive maritime track

Analysis
The Paris videoconference is diplomacy-by-conspicuous-listing rather than decision-making architecture: a 40-country non-belligerent coalition cannot produce an operational maritime mission in a conflict zone without US acquiescence, and the defensive framing is the deliberate formula to keep Washington consulted rather than angered. What it does signal is that Macron and Starmer are staking British and French positions on a post-war Hormuz security architecture that does not cede all shape to Trump's bilateral deal-making with Tehran, formalizing what had been bilateral Franco-British concern into a coalition instrument ahead of any US-Iran settlement. Macron's separate call to Modi, per Elysee-origin confirmation via Reuters/GBAF, is the more consequential track: India's freight and oil stakes dwarf those of most attendees, and with Trump having discussed Hormuz with Modi earlier this week, Paris and Washington are now competing for New Delhi's alignment simultaneously. The conference is very likely to produce a statement of intent without force commitments within 48 hours; actual Combined Maritime Forces expansion is very unlikely in the coming weeks before a ceasefire extension or deal is signed.