Norwegian PM Warns Putin May Not Want Peace, Gives Sober Assessment of Abu Dhabi Talks Prospects

Analysis
Støre's depiction of "a stepping stone" and his report of no sign "so far" that Putin is open to a deal undercut Trump's claim that an agreement is close, and Moscow reinforced the point by hitting Ukraine's energy grid with 172 drones and 36 ballistic missiles on the eve of the talks. The Abu Dhabi trilateral talks are unlikely to produce a publicly announced agreement on any concrete measure, whether a ceasefire, a prisoner exchange or a front-line freeze, by November 14. Moderate confidence rests on consistent reporting of Støre's remarks and Russian conduct, but Politico Europe is the single primary source, with the Ukraine News and Yerepouni News pieces repeating it, and no outlet has direct access to any delegation's negotiating position. Støre's doubt that Putin wants peace is new, since the October 27 call produced no movement. His caution may also be calibrated to manage expectations and defend that call against Danish and Latvian criticism, and a limited deal on prisoners or energy strikes could still emerge that he understates. If an agreement is announced, European capitals and Kyiv must decide whether to back a front-line or energy ceasefire and begin work on security guarantees. If not, the Dublin summit will press for a European negotiator and continued air-defense and sanctions support.