Armed Conflict — 2026-11-03

Ukraine Defies Trump to Resume Attacks on Russian Oil Refineries, Hitting 10 Percent of Refining Capacity in 72 Hours

BLUFUkraine will very likely strike at least one more Russian refinery by mid-November, deepening the rift with Washington ahead of the Abu Dhabi talks.

Ukraine resumed strikes on Russian refineries after a roughly two-week pause: Bloomberg reported a Friday attack on a Rosneft site in Samara oblast, the first confirmed in about two weeks, followed by weekend strikes on Ufa and the Norsi refinery 1. Russian state media said drones set the Kstovo refinery in Nizhny Novgorod oblast on fire on Sunday, and Russian investigators opened a terrorism case, per TASS via ABC 23. The Ukrainian Telegram channel Dnipro Osint, relayed by RBC-Ukraine and UNN, said Kstovo, Novokuibyshevsk and Bashneft-Novoil together hold about 33 million tonnes of annual capacity, roughly 10 percent of Russia's total 45. ABC reported that Trump had pressed Kyiv for weeks to stop such strikes, blaming them for higher diesel costs 3.

Analysis
Ukraine ended its roughly two-week, US-requested pause with strikes on October 30, October 31 and November 1, overturning the October 15 expectation that no new halt would come. Ukraine will very likely strike at least one more Russian refinery between November 4 and November 17, with Russian officials or independent reports confirming fire or damage. Confidence is moderate: reporting consistently shows three strikes in three days and the pause's end, but it rests on one primary Bloomberg report with the other outlets converging on it, and it shows no sign of a new US-brokered halt. Kyiv has tied any pause to Patriot deliveries, and the 500 interceptors approved last week will not arrive before 2030, so Washington has no air-defense inducement to offer now. The strikes may instead be a brief burst timed to the US midterms and the Abu Dhabi talks on November 10 and 11, after which Kyiv could accept a limited energy moratorium in exchange for US guarantees. If strikes continue, Washington must choose between pressing Kyiv again or offering incentives, and oil traders should price in renewed Russian product shortfalls. A halt would signal an Abu Dhabi deal and ease diesel-price pressure on the White House.

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