Middle East — 2026-10-12

Iraq Kurdistan Region Rattled by Over 1000 Iranian Drone Attacks as US Withdrawal Leaves Erbil Vulnerable

BLUFWith the US air-defense umbrella gone from Erbil and Tehran openly reserving the right to strike, further drone or missile attacks on Kurdistan Region targets are very likely within the next month.

The Kurdistan Region has faced more than 1,000 Iranian and Iran-aligned drone and missile attacks since the US-Israeli campaign against Iran began on February 28, killing at least 32 people and wounding about 154 as of mid-September, according to official figures cited by Rudaw 1. Two explosive-laden drones hit a Khabat Organization base in Erbil province on Thursday with no casualties, Rudaw reported 1, and three drones struck Azadi Camp in Koya on Monday, with no party claiming responsibility, per Shafaq News 2. US-led coalition forces completed their withdrawal from Erbil around the September 30 deadline, an Iraqi security source told Shafaq News 23. The Kurdistan Region's Ministry of Peshmerga Affairs called the departure without an air-defense system "a cause for concern" and said airspace protection is Baghdad's responsibility 2. Iran's consul general in Erbil, Faramarz Asadi, declined to say whether attacks would stop and warned that alleged CIA elements remaining in the region would be targeted 1.

Analysis
At least one further drone or missile attack on a Kurdistan Region target is very likely to be reported between October 12 and November 12. We have high confidence, because independent regional outlets converge on the attack tempo and on the absence of any air-defense replacement in Erbil, though casualty totals rest on official Kurdish figures. Tehran's consul general declined to rule out strikes, and Baghdad's pause on the factions runs only to late December. Strikes on Iranian Kurdish camps, previously tallied at 232, continue after the coalition exit. Removing U.S. forces may instead eliminate Iran's stated justification, leaving only sporadic strikes tied to its dispute with Baghdad. Continued attacks would push Erbil and Baghdad toward air-defense purchases, while a quiet month would weaken that case.
4 sources
  1. Rudaw report on drone and missile attacks on the Kurdistan Region
  2. Kurdistan Region faces air-defense gap as US troops leave Iraq - Shafaq News
  3. Iraq Kurds fear US-led coalition's exit - Arab News
  4. Iraq Kurdistan Region Rattled by Iranian Drones as Militant Dispute Resumes - Jamestown Foundation

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