Global Economy — 2026-05-08

US Pushes FORGE Critical Minerals Bloc to Break China Rare-Earth Grip

Reuters cited five sources reporting G7 members are in talks to create a permanent critical minerals secretariat; France called an online G7 meeting this week on the issue ahead of the mid-June Evian summit. Assistant Secretary of State Caleb Orr said 55 countries attended February's Critical Minerals Ministerial and 27 deals resulted; the US and EU added a coordination agreement last month on price floors and offtake arrangements. Reuters sources reported that European governments rejected a shared stockpile and oppose US leadership of any joint mechanism, fearing Washington could restrict access in a crisis. Global Times cited two Chinese government-linked analysts contending that Western internal divisions and China's processing dominance make supply chain independence unachievable.

Analysis
European governments' explicit view of Washington as a potential access restrictor makes the governance dispute substantive: a US-led secretariat would undermine the supply security it is meant to deliver. A formal secretariat is unlikely to emerge at the mid-June Evian summit, though European resistance may be leverage to reshape governance terms rather than a hard block. Bilateral channels are advancing regardless: 27 deals from February's ministerial and last month's US-EU price floor agreement demonstrate functional cooperation can outpace institution-building, per five-source Reuters reporting. China's processing dominance, not Western political will, is the binding constraint, and no secretariat resolves that without decades of upstream and midstream investment.

2 sources