Allied Intelligence — 2026-05-25

RAF Suspends Black Sea Surveillance Flights After Russian Su-27 Passes Within 19 Feet of Rivet Joint Spy Plane

BLUFDespite the temporary pause, RAF Rivet Joint flights over the Black Sea will likely resume within 90 days, leaving the more consequential risk of emboldened Russian intercepts upon return.

The UK Ministry of Defence announced on May 20 that two Russian jets had "repeatedly and dangerously" intercepted an unarmed RAF RC-135 Rivet Joint over the Black Sea in international airspace in April 12. A Russian Su-35 flew close enough to activate the Rivet Joint's emergency systems and knock out its autopilot; a Su-27 made six passes, closing to within six metres of the aircraft's nose 13. Defence Secretary John Healey publicly condemned the actions as "dangerous and unacceptable" and UK defence and foreign officials formally protested to the Russian embassy 1. Flight-tracking data cited by GB News shows no RAF Rivet Joint activity in the Black Sea since April 21; military sources told the Mail on Sunday the aircraft typically flies two missions per week to the area 23.

Analysis
The RAF will likely resume RC-135 surveillance over the Black Sea within 90 days of the May 20 announcement, closing a SIGINT gap that NATO planners are currently absorbing through alternate collection. High confidence reflects the UK's public pledge against deterrence, persistent operational demand, and the institutional norm across NATO of restoring paused ISR after intercept incidents. The RAF's deliberate transponder-on policy frames Black Sea overflight as a strategic signal, making indefinite suspension both operationally and politically self-defeating. Whether Russia interprets the pause as coercive success and escalates intercept aggressiveness upon resumption is the consequential open question.
4 sources
  1. Russia 'dangerously' intercepts British spy plane over Black Sea: Ministry - Al Jazeera
  2. Has the RAF paused Black Sea spy flights? - Defence Eye
  3. RAF suspends surveillance flights over Black Sea after Russian warplanes fly dangerously close to British spy plane - GB News
  4. RAF aircraft dangerously intercepted by Russian jets over Black Sea - UK Ministry of Defence (gov.uk)

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UNCLASSIFIED // OPEN SOURCE