Armed Conflict — 2026-05-06
GUR Assesses Russia Holds Over 1,950 Strategic Missiles with Expanded Monthly Production
Ukraine's Main Intelligence Directorate (HUR) assessed as of June 15, 2025 that Russia held over 1,950 strategic missiles spanning ballistic, cruise, and hypersonic types, in statements the agency provided to RBC-Ukraine. The largest single categories were up to 500 Iskander-M ballistic missiles and over 400 Kalibr cruise missiles; the total also included 60 North Korean-origin KN-23 ballistic missiles and up to 150 Kinzhal hypersonic missiles. HUR reported monthly production running at up to 195 missiles, a 10 to 20 percent increase over prior-year rates across several types. Russia's drone holdings as of the same date exceeded 6,000 Shahed-type strike drones and 6,000 Gerbera decoys, per the same assessment.
Analysis
At 195 missiles per month in production against a consumption rate the GUR does not disclose, the stockpile of 1,950 strategic missiles represents approximately 10 months of inventory at typical 2024-2025 launch tempos of 80-120 per month. Russia willlikely maintain a launch rate of at least 80 per month through Q3 2026, a moderate-confidence judgment conditioned on production sustaining the 10-20 percent year-over-year increase GUR reports. The inclusion of 60 North Korean KN-23 missiles in the assessed inventory reflects a dependency on external supply lines that sanctions and interdiction might constrain, while the 6,000 Shahed-type drones represent a parallel mass-attrition capability independent of strategic missile stocks.
At 195 missiles per month in production against a consumption rate the GUR does not disclose, the stockpile of 1,950 strategic missiles represents approximately 10 months of inventory at typical 2024-2025 launch tempos of 80-120 per month. Russia will