Patriot Missile in Bahrain Blast Likely US-Operated, Academic Analysis Finds

Researchers at the Middlebury Institute concluded with moderate-to-high confidence that a US-operated Patriot battery fired the interceptor involved in a March 9 explosion that injured 32 civilians in Bahrain's Mahazza neighborhood. Using open-source imagery and geolocation, they traced the missile trajectory to a US battery 4 miles southwest. Bahrain acknowledged for the first time that a Patriot system was involved but attributed the cause to an Iranian drone attack. The analysis suggests the explosion resulted from the Patriot interceptor's warhead and unexpended propellant detonating, not an incoming Iranian munition — a significant distinction for coalition credibility in the Gulf.