Middle East — 2026-10-21

Influential Iranian Officials Openly Call for Nuclear Bomb as US War Enters Eighth Month and Enrichment Debates Intensify

BLUFDespite open calls from Iranian lawmakers for a nuclear weapon, Iran is very unlikely to conduct a nuclear test or withdraw from the NPT by year-end, as leadership rhetoric signals bargaining leverage rather than a policy shift.

RFE/RL reported that sitting Iranian lawmakers Ahmad Bakhshayesh Ardestani and Hossein Ali Haji-Deligani have publicly urged nuclear weapons production, with Haji-Deligani suggesting a test could come soon, as the war with the US and Israel nears its eighth month 12. Supreme National Security Council Secretary Mohsen Rezaei said weaponization is not off the table 1. Supreme Leader Mojtaba Khamenei's adviser Mohammad Mokhber said on October 19 that control of the Strait of Hormuz removes the need for a bomb 12. RFE/RL reported that US and Israeli officials say Iran moved thousands of centrifuges to Pickaxe Mountain, which Trump said Washington "may have to go" to strike, and that the location of Iran's 440.9 kilograms of 60-percent uranium remains unknown 12.

Analysis
Confidence is high because Iran's enrichment base is crippled, its 60-percent stockpile remains unlocated, and the bomb calls come from lawmakers and commentators rather than the officials who set policy. Iran is very unlikely to conduct a nuclear explosive test or officially announce NPT withdrawal by December 31, 2026. Mokhber's argument that Hormuz control already deters shows the leadership still prefers coercive leverage to weaponization. The rhetoric nonetheless strengthens Tehran's bargaining position, since Washington's demand for a meaningful enrichment cut now carries an implied weaponization threat. A US strike on Pickaxe Mountain would be the most plausible trigger for a hardliner push to leave the NPT. The statements may instead be a coordinated signaling campaign meant to harden Tehran's position and deter that strike, not evidence of a real shift. Sourcing rests mostly on one RFE/RL account, with partial independent corroboration of the rhetoric from Iran International and Al Bawaba. If the test or withdrawal occurs, Washington and Israel would move from coercive diplomacy to pre-emptive strikes and allies would abandon dilution talks. Otherwise, negotiators can keep bargaining over stockpile dilution and a phased Hormuz reopening.

4 sources

With War In Limbo, Influential Iranian Officials Openly Call For A Nuclear Bomb - RFE/RL
With War In Limbo, Influential Iranian Officials Openly Call For A Nuclear Bomb - Eurasia Review
Iran signals possible nuclear policy shift, threatens US retaliation - Iran International
Iranian official calls to develop nuclear bomb, ignore Khamenei's nuclear policy - Al Bawaba