Israeli Sources Accuse VP Vance of Leaking Mossad-CIA Kurdish Regime Change Plan to Erdogan as Kurdish Parties Deny Receiving Weapons

Analysis
Naming a sitting VP specifically, rather than anonymous White House officials, escalates Israeli attribution in a way that complicates bilateral covert planning regardless of whether the allegation holds. A formal US investigation is very unlikely within the next 90 days. No institutional incentive exists to open an inquiry confirming the program's existence or validating Israeli sourcing against the VP. Moderate confidence reflects political calculus strongly disfavoring any formal process, though congressional oversight could force disclosure the executive would otherwise suppress. The Kurdish parties' uniform denials leave the weapons-transfer account uncorroborated. Attribution may serve equally as deflection from internal Israeli intelligence disagreements over the operation's viability, with Vance targeted for his Iran skepticism rather than positive evidence of his role. Whether Congress exercises oversight authority determines whether committees can compel testimony establishing the operation's scope.