European Security — 2026-05-30

Russia Spoofing Ukrainian Drone GPS to Redirect Strikes Into NATO Baltic Airspace

Russian electronic warfare units in Kaliningrad are spoofing GPS signals to redirect Ukrainian strike drones into Baltic NATO airspace, Lithuanian officials and outside researchers confirmed this week 12. Lithuania's communications regulator counted 36 active transmitters reaching 450 kilometers across the region, up from three at the start of 2025, and researchers from Gdynia Maritime University and the University of Colorado traced the interference to two coastal sites near Okunevo and the Baltiysk naval base 1. Misdirected drones struck a Latvian oil depot on May 7 and were intercepted by a Romanian F-16 over Estonia on May 19 13. Ukrainian Foreign Minister Sybiha said Kyiv's investigations confirmed the diversions were deliberate Russian electronic warfare; Moscow denied the activity and recast the overflights as evidence that Baltic states are enabling Ukrainian attacks 14.

Analysis
Further misdirected Ukrainian strike drones entering NATO airspace are likely within 60 days. Russia's Kaliningrad spoofing network grew from three transmitters to 36 since January, with no indication Moscow will reduce it. Ukraine's continuing campaign against Baltic coast energy targets keeps long-range drones flying the routes where interference is densest, removing operational discretion that could otherwise lower incident frequency. Each incursion forces Baltic governments onto the defensive while Moscow deflects scrutiny from its own energy vulnerabilities. Confidence is moderate; the transmitter network is physically traceable and incidents are documented, though Ukrainian adoption of spoofing-resistant navigation reduces the susceptible fraction of the fleet.
5 sources
  1. How Russia is turning Ukraine's drones against NATO - Defense News
  2. Russia redirecting Ukrainian drones toward Baltic states – media - LRT
  3. How Russia exploits drone incursions in the Baltics—and how to respond - Atlantic Council
  4. Russian Electronic Warfare Units in Kaliningrad Are Redirecting Ukrainian Drones Toward Finland and Baltic States - Militarnyi
  5. Putin's mid-air hijackings turn Ukraine drones against Europe - The Telegraph

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